Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 71

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Washington Commanders 6

(4:42) 2-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to WAS 27, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 37-G.Stroman.

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.45 EP
57% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 71, worth -4.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model