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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 31

Washington Commanders 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(11:16) 3-D.Hopkins 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.35 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 31, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
What Happened
  • 74% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 41, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model