4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 64

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(4:05) 2-R.Sanchez punts 39 yards to WAS 25, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 37-G.Stroman.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.71 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 64, worth -3.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 22, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model