4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
NO Away

New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
@
MIN Home

Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
Sunday 2018-01-14 · 16:40 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 5.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

NO
36.7%
MIN
63.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIN defense: -0.209 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • NO offense: +0.081 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • MIN offense: +0.063 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • MIN on 7 more days rest than NO
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to NO: Case Keenum (MIN) +0.129 vs Drew Brees (NO) +0.230 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

NO 23
–
MIN 28
Projected margin: MIN by 5 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 19

NO

Brandon Coleman WR Out Neck
Taysom Hill QB Questionable Illness
Michael Mauti LB Questionable Illness

MIN

Terence Newman CB Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 24
–
MIN 29

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:51 TD MIN (9:51) 21-J.McKinnon left end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – MIN 6
  • Q1 04:45 FG MIN (4:45) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Overbaugh, Holder-4-R.Quigley. NO 0 – MIN 10
  • Q2 10:03 TD MIN (10:03) (Run formation) 76-A.Collins reported in as eligible. 25-L.Murray right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – MIN 16
  • Q3 01:23 TD NO (1:23) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 13-M.Thomas for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – MIN 17
  • Q4 13:12 TD NO (13:12) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 13-M.Thomas for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 13 – MIN 17
  • Q4 10:17 FG MIN (10:17) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Overbaugh, Holder-4-R.Quigley. NO 14 – MIN 20
  • Q4 03:06 TD NO (3:06) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 41-A.Kamara for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 20 – MIN 20
  • Q4 01:34 FG MIN (1:34) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Overbaugh, Holder-4-R.Quigley. NO 21 – MIN 23
  • Q4 00:29 FG NO (:29) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 24 – MIN 23
  • Q4 00:10 TD MIN (:10) (Shotgun) 7-C.Keenum pass deep right to 14-S.Diggs for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was in bounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. NO 24 – MIN 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (14:14) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to MIN 26, Center-49-Z.Wood. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 45 for 19 yards (6-T.Morstead).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 3 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (7:18) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.00 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 99%

    (4:45) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Overbaugh, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 1 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (3:22) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 38 yards to MIN 34, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 1 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.47 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (1:21) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 42 yards to NO 15, Center-44-J.Overbaugh, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 6 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 25%

    (3:16) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 44 yards to NO 9, Center-44-J.Overbaugh, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 20 at the 40
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 56%

    (:26) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 14 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 56%

    (8:07) 4-R.Quigley punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Overbaugh, Touchback.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 7 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 76%

    (10:17) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Overbaugh, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (9:06) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to MIN 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 13 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (5:28) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 1 yard to MIN 41, Center-44-J.Overbaugh. 50-G.Hodges to MIN 40 for 1 yard (41-A.Harris; 50-E.Wilson). Kick deflected by NO 90. Statistically this is not a blocked punt because the ball traveled beyond the line of scrimmage.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 5 at the 35 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 68%

    (1:34) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Overbaugh, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 10 at the 46 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 40%

    (:45) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 83-W.Snead pushed ob at MIN 33 for 13 yards (20-M.Alexander).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 2 at the 25 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 85%

    (:29) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.