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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 64

New Orleans Saints 14 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(9:06) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to MIN 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.37 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 64, worth -3.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 22, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP