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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 35

Minnesota Vikings 20 – New Orleans Saints 21

What Actually Happened

(1:34) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Overbaugh, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.29 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 35, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 45, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model