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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 70

New Orleans Saints 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(14:14) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to MIN 26, Center-49-Z.Wood. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 45 for 19 yards (6-T.Morstead).

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 70, worth -4.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 28, worth -1.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model