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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 1

Minnesota Vikings 7 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(4:45) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Overbaugh, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +4.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.27 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 1, worth +0.61 EP
KICK +2.30 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.45 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.00 EP