Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 13 at the 60

Minnesota Vikings 20 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(5:28) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 1 yard to MIN 41, Center-44-J.Overbaugh. 50-G.Hodges to MIN 40 for 1 yard (41-A.Harris; 50-E.Wilson). Kick deflected by NO 90. Statistically this is not a blocked punt because the ball traveled beyond the line of scrimmage.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.51 EP
69% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 60, worth -2.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model