Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- TEN offense: -0.087 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
- QB edge to KC: Alex Smith (KC) +0.163 vs Marcus Mariota (TEN) -0.048 EPA/dropback (KC starting Alex Smith in place of Patrick Mahomes)
- KC defense: -0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 18
TEN
KC
Pulled fresh for 2017 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:42 TD KC (7:42) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – KC 6
- Q1 02:19 TD KC (2:19) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – KC 13
- Q2 02:00 FG TEN (2:00) 4-R.Succop 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 3 – KC 14
- Q2 00:08 TD KC (:08) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 14-D.Robinson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 3 – KC 20
- Q3 06:44 TD TEN (6:44) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 8-M.Mariota for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass deflected by D.Revis back to M.Mariota TEN 9 – KC 21
- Q4 14:17 TD TEN (14:17) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 16 – KC 21
- Q4 06:10 TD TEN (6:10) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep middle to 87-E.Decker for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 22 – KC 21
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 KC 4th & 6 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(11:57) 2-D.Colquitt punts 51 yards to TEN 20, Center-41-J.Winchester. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 25 for 5 yards (19-M.Kemp).
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Q1 TEN 4th & 3 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52%
(10:52) 6-B.Kern punts 57 yards to KC 11, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 10-T.Hill to KC 19 for 8 yards (41-B.Trawick).
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Q1 TEN 4th & 8 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(5:46) 6-B.Kern punts 36 yards to KC 39, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds. PENALTY on KC-40-K.Reaser, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at KC 39.
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Q2 TEN 4th & 4 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 23%
(14:11) 6-B.Kern punts 38 yards to KC 12, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 12 for no gain (32-D.Fluellen).
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Q2 KC 4th & 9 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(6:09) 2-D.Colquitt punts 54 yards to TEN 8, Center-41-J.Winchester. 25-A.Jackson pushed ob at TEN 21 for 13 yards (80-J.Chesson).
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Q2 TEN 4th & 13 at the 31Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 71%
(2:00) 4-R.Succop 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.
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Q3 KC 4th & 2 at the 73Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EPp(convert) 61%
(4:49) 2-D.Colquitt punts 44 yards to TEN 29, Center-41-J.Winchester. 25-A.Jackson MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by KC-40-K.Reaser at TEN 28. 40-K.Reaser to TEN 28 for no gain (41-B.Trawick).
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Q3 KC 4th & 12 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 73%
(2:31) 7-H.Butker 48 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
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Q4 KC 4th & 2 at the 54Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EPp(convert) 59%
(11:26) 2-D.Colquitt punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.
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Q4 KC 4th & 9 at the 44 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 37%
(2:15) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete deep middle to 12-A.Wilson.