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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 13 at the 31

Tennessee Titans 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 4-R.Succop 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.67 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 31, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 41, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model