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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 68

Tennessee Titans 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(10:52) 6-B.Kern punts 57 yards to KC 11, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 10-T.Hill to KC 19 for 8 yards (41-B.Trawick).

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.24 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 68, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 26, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model