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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 50

Tennessee Titans 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(14:11) 6-B.Kern punts 38 yards to KC 12, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 12 for no gain (32-D.Fluellen).

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.73 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 50, worth -2.97 EP
KICK -1.88 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model