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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 12 at the 30

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(2:31) 7-H.Butker 48 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.87 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 40, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model