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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 44

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – Tennessee Titans 22

What Actually Happened

(2:15) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete deep middle to 12-A.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +2.47 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 44, worth -1.65 EP
KICK -0.48 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model