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Oakland Raiders

HC Jack Del Rio
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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Anthony Lynn
Sunday 2017-12-31 · 16:25 StubHub Center, Carson US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

OAK
22.3%
LAC
77.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.100 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • LAC offense: +0.102 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • LAC defense: -0.119 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Philip Rivers (LAC): +0.214 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

OAK 19
–
LAC 28
Projected margin: LAC by 9 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

OAK

Treyvon Hester DT Out Ankle
Vadal Alexander T Doubtful Concussion
David Sharpe T Questionable Illness
David Amerson CB Questionable Foot
Dexter McDonald CB Questionable Knee

LAC

Adrian Phillips S Out Ankle
Melvin Gordon RB Questionable Ankle
Corey Liuget DT Questionable Knee
Russell Okung T Questionable Groin
Denzel Perryman LB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

OAK 10
–
LAC 30

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 13:19 TD LAC (13:19) 28-M.Gordon right end to LV 29 for 11 yards (27-R.Nelson). FUMBLES (27-R.Nelson), recovered by LAC-13-K.Allen at LV 27. 13-K.Allen for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 0 – LAC 6
  • Q2 11:51 TD LV (11:51) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 89-A.Cooper for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 6 – LAC 7
  • Q2 07:33 FG LV (7:33) 2-G.Tavecchio 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. OAK 10 – LAC 7
  • Q2 05:21 TD LAC (5:21) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 16-Ty.Williams for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 10 – LAC 13
  • Q2 00:30 TD LAC (:30) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 13-K.Allen for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 10 – LAC 20
  • Q3 10:44 FG LAC (10:44) 6-N.Rose 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens. OAK 10 – LAC 23
  • Q3 01:00 TD LAC (1:00) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 12-T.Benjamin for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 10 – LAC 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (13:43) 7-M.King punts 50 yards to LAC 22, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 7 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 52%

    (9:26) 8-D.Kaser punts 30 yards to LV 11, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 38-T.Carrie.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 20 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 52%

    (2:43) 7-M.King punts 40 yards to LAC 1, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 7 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 73%

    (8:43) 6-N.Rose 50 yard field goal is BLOCKED (78-J.Ellis), Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens, RECOVERED by LV-39-K.McGill at LAC 30. 39-K.McGill to LAC 30 for no gain (10-K.Clemens).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 2 at the 22
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 88%

    (7:33) 2-G.Tavecchio 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (10:44) 6-N.Rose 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 2 at the 18
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 92%

    (5:51) (Shotgun) 24-M.Lynch right end to LAC 18 for no gain (95-T.Palepoi).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (14:20) 7-M.King punts 46 yards to LAC 28, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin. PENALTY on LV-50-N.Morrow, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 28.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 20 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 54%

    (10:23) 8-D.Kaser punts 33 yards to LV 7, Center-47-M.Windt. 16-J.Holton MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at LV 8.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 83
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (9:03) 4-D.Carr up the middle to LV 17 for no gain (93-D.Philon). FUMBLES (93-D.Philon), RECOVERED by LAC-99-J.Bosa at LV 16. 99-J.Bosa to LV 16 for no gain (4-D.Carr).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 97%

    (7:09) 28-M.Gordon up the middle to LV 7 for no gain (53-N.Bowman, 96-D.Autry). LV-94-E.Vanderdoes was injured during the play.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 5 at the 5 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (2:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short right.