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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 20 at the 40

Los Angeles Chargers 30 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(10:23) 8-D.Kaser punts 33 yards to LV 7, Center-47-M.Windt. 16-J.Holton MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at LV 8.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.64 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 40, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.16 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model