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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 7

Los Angeles Chargers 20 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(10:44) 6-N.Rose 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

The Three Options

GO +2.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.09 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 7, worth +0.25 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model