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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Las Vegas Raiders
4th & 2 at the 18
Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 23
What Actually Happened
(5:51) (Shotgun) 24-M.Lynch right end to LAC 18 for no gain (95-T.Palepoi).
The Three Options
GO
+1.78 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.69 EP
- 49% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 18, worth -1.27 EP
KICK
+1.11 EP
- 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
- 8% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT
-0.75 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.75 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
