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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 72

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:43) 7-M.King punts 50 yards to LAC 22, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.

The Three Options

GO -2.34 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 30, worth -2.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model