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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 22

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:33) 2-G.Tavecchio 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.31 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.41 EP
KICK +1.02 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP