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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
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Denver Broncos

HC Vance Joseph
Sunday 2017-12-31 · 16:25 Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver US 🥶 Cold Spread 3.0 O/U 37.5

Win Probability

KC
60.8%
DEN
39.2%
🥶 Cold

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to KC: Paxton Lynch (DEN) -0.180 vs Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.155 EPA/dropback (DEN starting Paxton Lynch in place of Brock Osweiler; KC starting Patrick Mahomes in place of Alex Smith)
  • DEN offense: -0.145 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • KC defense: -0.076 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

KC 24
–
DEN 17
Projected margin: KC by 7 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

KC

Tyreek Hill WR Out Not Injury Related
Bennie Logan DT Doubtful Knee
Kenneth Acker CB Questionable Illness
Cameron Erving T Questionable Illness
Tamba Hali LB Questionable Knee
Rakeem Nunez-Roches DE Questionable Illness
Charcandrick West RB Questionable Illness
Akeem Hunt RB Questionable Shoulder
Kevin Pierre-Louis LB Questionable Shoulder

DEN

Zach Kerr DE Out Ankle
Cody Latimer WR Out Thigh
Emmanuel Sanders WR Out Ankle
Donald Stephenson T Questionable Hand

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 27
–
DEN 24

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 14:10 TD KC (14:10) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt right guard for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – DEN 0
  • Q1 05:26 FG DEN (5:26) 8-B.McManus 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. KC 7 – DEN 3
  • Q2 05:06 TD DEN (5:06) (Shotgun) 12-P.Lynch pass short right to 33-D.Henderson for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 7 – DEN 9
  • Q2 01:12 TD KC (1:12) (Shotgun) 42-A.Sherman up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 13 – DEN 10
  • Q3 04:02 FG KC (4:02) 7-H.Butker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 17 – DEN 10
  • Q3 03:17 TD KC (3:17) 12-P.Lynch sacked at DEN 21 for -8 yards (95-C.Jones). FUMBLES (95-C.Jones) [95-C.Jones], touched at DEN 19, RECOVERED by KC-53-R.Wilson at DEN 11. 53-R.Wilson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 23 – DEN 10
  • Q4 07:02 TD DEN (7:02) (Shotgun) 9-T.Bray FUMBLES (Aborted) at KC 42, RECOVERED by DEN-50-Z.Anderson at KC 38. 50-Z.Anderson for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 24 – DEN 16
  • Q4 02:58 TD DEN (2:58) (Shotgun) 12-P.Lynch pass short left to 88-D.Thomas for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 24 – DEN 23
  • Q4 00:04 FG KC (:04) 7-H.Butker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 27 – DEN 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (12:48) 9-R.Dixon punts 25 yards to KC 48, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-34-W.Parks.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 4 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 92%

    (5:26) 8-B.McManus 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 8 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 50%

    (:01) 9-R.Dixon punts 36 yards to KC 5, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 13-D.Thomas to KC 6 for 1 yard (38-M.Rios). KC-13-D.Thomas was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.58 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (10:47) 2-D.Colquitt punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 11 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (:08) 2-D.Colquitt punts 77 yards to DEN 3, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-80-J.Chesson.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 7 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:56) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to KC 12, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 14-D.Robinson to KC 8 for -4 yards (43-J.Jones).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 29
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 78%

    (7:34) (Shotgun) 42-A.Sherman up the middle to DEN 24 for 5 yards (50-Z.Anderson; 34-W.Parks).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 98%

    (4:02) 7-H.Butker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 13 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (:42) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to KC 23, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 14-D.Robinson.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 9 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 24%

    (12:59) 2-D.Colquitt punts 32 yards to DEN 20, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 87-J.Taylor.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 15 at the 16
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 93%

    (7:12) (Shotgun) 12-P.Lynch pass short right intended for 84-I.McKenzie INTERCEPTED by 39-T.Mitchell at KC 2. 39-T.Mitchell pushed ob at KC 42 for 40 yards (60-C.McGovern).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (5:27) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to DEN 32, Center-41-J.Winchester. 87-J.Taylor to DEN 38 for 6 yards (25-K.Acker).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 4 at the 6 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (2:58) (Shotgun) 12-P.Lynch pass short left to 88-D.Thomas for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.