KC @ DEN — 4th & Data

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Denver Broncos

5-11 HC Vance Joseph

Sunday 2017-12-31 · 16:25 ET Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver US 🥶 Cold Spread 3.0 O/U 37.5

Win Probability

60.4%

DEN

39.6%

🥶 Cold

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

DEN offense: -0.145 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
Paxton Lynch (DEN): -0.180 EPA/dropback in prior starts (DEN starting Paxton Lynch in place of Brock Osweiler)
DEN defense: -0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
Played at altitude (3,000+ ft)
Patrick Mahomes (KC): +0.087 EPA/dropback in prior starts (KC starting Patrick Mahomes in place of Alex Smith)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

KC 24 17–31

–

DEN 17 10–24

Projected margin: KC by 7 Projected total: 41

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 17

KC

Tyreek Hill WR Out Not Injury Related

Bennie Logan DT Doubtful Knee

Kenneth Acker CB Questionable Illness

Cameron Erving T Questionable Illness

Tamba Hali LB Questionable Knee

Rakeem Nunez-Roches DE Questionable Illness

Charcandrick West RB Questionable Illness

Akeem Hunt RB Questionable Shoulder

Kevin Pierre-Louis LB Questionable Shoulder

DEN

Zach Kerr DE Out Ankle

Cody Latimer WR Out Thigh

Emmanuel Sanders WR Out Ankle

Donald Stephenson T Questionable Hand

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 27

–

DEN 24

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 14:10 TD KC (14:10) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt right guard for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – DEN 0
Q1 05:26 FG DEN (5:26) 8-B.McManus 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. KC 7 – DEN 3
Q2 05:06 TD DEN (5:06) (Shotgun) 12-P.Lynch pass short right to 33-D.Henderson for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 7 – DEN 9
Q2 01:12 TD KC (1:12) (Shotgun) 42-A.Sherman up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 13 – DEN 10
Q3 04:02 FG KC (4:02) 7-H.Butker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 17 – DEN 10
Q3 03:17 TD KC (3:17) 12-P.Lynch sacked at DEN 21 for -8 yards (95-C.Jones). FUMBLES (95-C.Jones) [95-C.Jones], touched at DEN 19, RECOVERED by KC-53-R.Wilson at DEN 11. 53-R.Wilson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 23 – DEN 10
Q4 07:02 TD DEN (7:02) (Shotgun) 9-T.Bray FUMBLES (Aborted) at KC 42, RECOVERED by DEN-50-Z.Anderson at KC 38. 50-Z.Anderson for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 24 – DEN 16
Q4 02:58 TD DEN (2:58) (Shotgun) 12-P.Lynch pass short left to 88-D.Thomas for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 24 – DEN 23
Q4 00:04 FG KC (:04) 7-H.Butker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 27 – DEN 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 DEN 4th & 8 at the 73

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(12:48) 9-R.Dixon punts 25 yards to KC 48, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-34-W.Parks.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 DEN 4th & 4 at the 18

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39% p(FG) 92%

(5:26) 8-B.McManus 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 DEN 4th & 8 at the 41

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 50%

(:01) 9-R.Dixon punts 36 yards to KC 5, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 13-D.Thomas to KC 6 for 1 yard (38-M.Rios). KC-13-D.Thomas was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 56

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.58 EP

p(convert) 69%

(10:47) 2-D.Colquitt punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 KC 4th & 11 at the 80

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33%

(:08) 2-D.Colquitt punts 77 yards to DEN 3, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-80-J.Chesson.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 DEN 4th & 7 at the 61

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(12:56) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to KC 12, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 14-D.Robinson to KC 8 for -4 yards (43-J.Jones).
See the full breakdown →
Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 29

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 66% p(FG) 78%

(7:34) (Shotgun) 42-A.Sherman up the middle to DEN 24 for 5 yards (50-Z.Anderson; 34-W.Parks).
See the full breakdown →
Q3 KC 4th & 2 at the 2

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP

p(convert) 51% p(FG) 98%

(4:02) 7-H.Butker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 DEN 4th & 13 at the 70

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(:42) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to KC 23, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 14-D.Robinson.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 KC 4th & 9 at the 52

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 24%

(12:59) 2-D.Colquitt punts 32 yards to DEN 20, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 87-J.Taylor.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 DEN 4th & 15 at the 16

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.88 EP

p(convert) 21% p(FG) 93%

(7:12) (Shotgun) 12-P.Lynch pass short right intended for 84-I.McKenzie INTERCEPTED by 39-T.Mitchell at KC 2. 39-T.Mitchell pushed ob at KC 42 for 40 yards (60-C.McGovern).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 KC 4th & 8 at the 73

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37%

(5:27) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to DEN 32, Center-41-J.Winchester. 87-J.Taylor to DEN 38 for 6 yards (25-K.Acker).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 DEN 4th & 4 at the 6 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

(2:58) (Shotgun) 12-P.Lynch pass short left to 88-D.Thomas for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
See the full breakdown →

Kansas City Chiefs