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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 15 at the 16

Denver Broncos 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 24

What Actually Happened

(7:12) (Shotgun) 12-P.Lynch pass short right intended for 84-I.McKenzie INTERCEPTED by 39-T.Mitchell at KC 2. 39-T.Mitchell pushed ob at KC 42 for 40 yards (60-C.McGovern).

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
What Happened
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.39 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 16, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.88 EP