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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 6

Denver Broncos 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 24

What Actually Happened

(2:58) (Shotgun) 12-P.Lynch pass short left to 88-D.Thomas for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.07 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 6, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model