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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 18

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(5:26) 8-B.McManus 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.84 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.24 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 18, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +2.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 28, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT +0.24 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model