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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 61

Denver Broncos 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(12:56) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to KC 12, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 14-D.Robinson to KC 8 for -4 yards (43-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.82 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 61, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 20, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model