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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 52

Kansas City Chiefs 24 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(12:59) 2-D.Colquitt punts 32 yards to DEN 20, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 87-J.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.01 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 52, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -1.44 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 15, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model