4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
HOU Home

Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
Monday 2017-12-25 · 16:30 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread -8.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

PIT
68.7%
HOU
31.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PIT offense: +0.122 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • QB edge to PIT: T.J. Yates (HOU) -0.105 vs Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +0.137 EPA/dropback
  • HOU offense: -0.095 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • HOU defense: +0.085 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

PIT 26
–
HOU 20
Projected margin: PIT by 6 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

PIT

Antonio Brown WR Out Calf
Ramon Foster G Questionable Concussion
Coty Sensabaugh CB Questionable Shoulder

HOU

Jeff Allen G Out Concussion
Kendall Lamm T Out Concussion
LaTroy Lewis LB Out Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 34
–
HOU 6

Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:44 FG PIT (10:44) 9-C.Boswell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 3 – HOU 0
  • Q1 07:06 TD PIT (7:06) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 11-J.Hunter for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 9 – HOU 0
  • Q2 04:18 TD PIT (4:18) 45-R.Nix up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 16 – HOU 0
  • Q2 00:57 FG PIT (:57) 9-C.Boswell 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 20 – HOU 0
  • Q3 01:53 TD PIT (1:53) (Shotgun) 26-L.Bell up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 26 – HOU 0
  • Q4 12:36 TD HOU (12:36) (Shotgun) 2-T.Yates pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PIT-97-C.Heyward, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. PIT 27 – HOU 6
  • Q4 09:31 TD PIT (9:31) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 33 – HOU 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 8 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 94%

    (10:44) 9-C.Boswell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 15 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (9:12) 9-S.Lechler punts 44 yards to PIT 46, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 17-E.Rogers.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 8 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 29%

    (3:28) 9-S.Lechler punts 44 yards to PIT 7, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 17-E.Rogers.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 7 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (15:00) 4-J.Berry punts 39 yards to HOU 34, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 13-B.Miller.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 99%

    (10:28) (Shotgun) 2-T.Yates pass short middle intended for 15-W.Fuller V INTERCEPTED by 25-A.Burns at PIT 0. Touchback. The Replay Official reviewed the pass interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 12 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 92%

    (:57) 9-C.Boswell 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:16) 9-S.Lechler punts 59 yards to PIT 15, Center-46-J.Weeks. 17-E.Rogers to PIT 31 for 16 yards (28-A.Blue; 46-J.Weeks).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 3 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (7:32) 4-J.Berry punts 47 yards to HOU 10, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 13-B.Miller.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 3 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (5:58) 9-S.Lechler punts 52 yards to PIT 31, Center-46-J.Weeks. 17-E.Rogers pushed ob at HOU 42 for 27 yards (43-C.Moore).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 3 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (6:58) 9-S.Lechler punts 45 yards to PIT 10, Center-46-J.Weeks. 17-E.Rogers to PIT 13 for 3 yards (14-C.Thompson).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 5 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (5:23) 4-J.Berry punts 57 yards to HOU 25, Center-57-K.Canaday. 13-B.Miller to HOU 32 for 7 yards (20-R.Golden; 29-B.Allen).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 17 at the 64 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (3:01) 9-S.Lechler punts 60 yards to PIT 4, Center-46-J.Weeks. 17-E.Rogers to PIT 25 for 21 yards (14-C.Thompson). PENALTY on HOU-31-T.Decoud, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 25.