4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 16

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(10:44) 9-C.Boswell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.24 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 16, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 26, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model