4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 74

Houston Texans 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 20

What Actually Happened

(:16) 9-S.Lechler punts 59 yards to PIT 15, Center-46-J.Weeks. 17-E.Rogers to PIT 31 for 16 yards (28-A.Blue; 46-J.Weeks).

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.46 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 74, worth -2.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 32, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model