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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 55

Houston Texans 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 34

What Actually Happened

(6:58) 9-S.Lechler punts 45 yards to PIT 10, Center-46-J.Weeks. 17-E.Rogers to PIT 13 for 3 yards (14-C.Thompson).

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.33 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP