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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 1

Houston Texans 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(10:28) (Shotgun) 2-T.Yates pass short middle intended for 15-W.Fuller V INTERCEPTED by 25-A.Burns at PIT 0. Touchback. The Replay Official reviewed the pass interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO +3.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.83 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.71 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model