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Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
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Oakland Raiders

HC Jack Del Rio
Sunday 2017-12-17 · 20:30 Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, Oakland US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

DAL
42.5%
OAK
57.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV defense: +0.062 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • Dak Prescott (DAL): -0.062 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LV offense: -0.027 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DAL 22
–
OAK 24
Projected margin: OAK by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

DAL

David Irving DE Out Concussion
Orlando Scandrick CB Out Back
Justin Durant LB Out Concussion
Brice Butler WR Questionable Foot
Sean Lee LB Questionable Hamstring
Maliek Collins DT Questionable Foot
La'el Collins T Questionable Back
James Hanna TE Questionable Knee
Tyron Smith T Questionable Back

OAK

Amari Cooper WR Out Ankle
Mario Edwards DE Out Ankle
Obi Melifonwu S Out Hip
Clive Walford TE Out Concussion
David Amerson CB Doubtful Foot
Denico Autry DE Questionable Hand
Jon Feliciano G Questionable Concussion
Keith McGill S Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 20
–
OAK 17

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:01 FG DAL (5:01) 5-D.Bailey 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 3 – OAK 0
  • Q2 14:07 TD DAL (14:07) 73-J.Looney reported in as eligible. 45-R.Smith up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 9 – OAK 0
  • Q3 08:08 TD LV (8:08) (No Huddle) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 15-M.Crabtree for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 10 – OAK 6
  • Q3 06:18 FG LV (6:18) 2-G.Tavecchio 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. DAL 10 – OAK 10
  • Q3 00:53 TD DAL (:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 16 – OAK 10
  • Q4 10:40 TD LV (10:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 15-M.Crabtree for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 17 – OAK 16
  • Q4 01:47 FG DAL (1:47) 5-D.Bailey 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 20 – OAK 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (9:12) 7-M.King punts 33 yards to DAL 32, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-50-N.Morrow.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 8 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 81%

    (5:01) 5-D.Bailey 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (4:00) 7-M.King punts 50 yards to DAL 18, Center-59-J.Condo. 10-R.Switzer to DAL 25 for 7 yards (55-M.Lee, 56-X.Woodson-Luster). PENALTY on LV-16-J.Holton, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 25.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.73 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 24%

    (8:20) 7-M.King punts 42 yards to DAL 10, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (3:12) 6-C.Jones punts 43 yards to LV 31, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 9 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 89%

    (6:18) 2-G.Tavecchio 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 34%

    (4:45) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones right end ran ob at DAL 48 for 24 yards (30-J.Richard).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (8:15) 6-C.Jones punts 43 yards to LV 25, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds. PENALTY on LV-91-S.Calhoun, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 25.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 4 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (6:42) 7-M.King punts 57 yards to DAL 22, Center-59-J.Condo. 10-R.Switzer ran ob at DAL 30 for 8 yards (50-N.Morrow).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (5:06) 4-D.Prescott up the middle to DAL 40 for 1 yard (50-N.Morrow).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.72 EP
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (1:47) 5-D.Bailey 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.