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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 21

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(6:18) 2-G.Tavecchio 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.17 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 31, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model