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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 79

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(6:42) 7-M.King punts 57 yards to DAL 22, Center-59-J.Condo. 10-R.Switzer ran ob at DAL 30 for 8 yards (50-N.Morrow).

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.27 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 79, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.59 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 36, worth -1.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model