4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 68

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(4:00) 7-M.King punts 50 yards to DAL 18, Center-59-J.Condo. 10-R.Switzer to DAL 25 for 7 yards (55-M.Lee, 56-X.Woodson-Luster). PENALTY on LV-16-J.Holton, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 25.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 68, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 26, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model