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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 11 at the 76

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(4:45) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones right end ran ob at DAL 48 for 24 yards (30-J.Richard).

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.50 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 76, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 34, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.73 EP