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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Dirk Koetter
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Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2017-12-03 · 13:00 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

TB
45.8%
GB
54.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Brett Hundley (GB): -0.201 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TB offense: -0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TB 20
–
GB 22
Projected margin: GB by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

TB

Vernon Hargreaves CB Out Hamstring
Doug Martin RB Out Concussion
Clinton McDonald DT Out Back
Josh Robinson S Out Hamstring
T.J. Ward S Out Concussion
Robert Ayers DE Out Concussion
Jameis Winston QB Questionable right Shoulder
Cameron Brate TE Questionable Hip
DeSean Jackson WR Questionable Foot
Leonard Wester T Questionable Ankle

GB

Kevin King CB Out Shoulder
Ty Montgomery RB Out Ribs
Lucas Patrick G Questionable Hand
Ahmad Brooks LB Questionable Back
Kenny Clark DT Questionable Ankle
Aaron Jones RB Questionable Knee
Clay Matthews LB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 20
–
GB 26

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:58 TD TB (9:58) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep middle to 84-C.Brate for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – GB 0
  • Q1 02:34 FG GB (2:34) 2-M.Crosby 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-J.Vogel. TB 7 – GB 3
  • Q2 07:17 TD GB (7:17) 74-U.John reported in as eligible. 30-J.Williams left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 7 – GB 9
  • Q2 04:31 TD GB (4:31) 66-L.Wester reported in as eligible. 3-J.Winston sacked at GB 38 for -8 yards (97-K.Clark). FUMBLES (97-K.Clark) [97-K.Clark], RECOVERED by GB-94-D.Lowry at GB 38. 94-D.Lowry for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 7 – GB 16
  • Q2 00:17 FG TB (:17) 7-P.Murray 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 10 – GB 17
  • Q4 14:33 FG TB (14:33) 7-P.Murray 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 13 – GB 17
  • Q4 06:06 TD TB (6:06) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 84-C.Brate for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 19 – GB 17
  • Q4 02:03 FG GB (2:03) 2-M.Crosby 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-J.Vogel. TB 20 – GB 20
  • Q5 06:08 TD GB (6:08) 33-A.Jones left end for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 20 – GB 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 6 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 90%

    (2:34) 2-M.Crosby 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-J.Vogel.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (1:43) 9-B.Anger punts 47 yards to GB 26, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 4 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (14:08) 8-J.Vogel punts 32 yards to TB 26, Center-61-B.Goode, downed by GB-25-M.Evans.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 14 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 25%

    (11:07) 9-B.Anger punts 31 yards to GB 19, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 7 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (9:53) 9-B.Anger punts 0 yards to TB 45, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 35-J.Whitehead to TB 45 for no gain (59-D.Bond). K.Fackrell deflected the punt.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 9 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 91%

    (:17) 7-P.Murray 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 4 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (13:09) 8-J.Vogel punts 42 yards to TB 14, Center-61-B.Goode. 10-A.Humphries ran ob at TB 25 for 11 yards (50-B.Martinez). PENALTY on TB-36-R.McClain, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 24.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 17 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (7:03) 9-B.Anger punts 52 yards to GB 6, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 12 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (5:32) 8-J.Vogel punts 57 yards to TB 39, Center-61-B.Goode. 10-A.Humphries pushed ob at TB 40 for 1 yard (35-J.Whitehead). PENALTY on TB-45-A.Cross, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 39.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 12 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 95%

    (14:33) 7-P.Murray 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (13:15) 8-J.Vogel punts 50 yards to TB 20, Center-61-B.Goode. 10-A.Humphries to TB 22 for 2 yards (83-J.Janis).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 1 at the 5 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.53 EP
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (2:03) 2-M.Crosby 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-J.Vogel.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 12 at the 82 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:54) 9-B.Anger punts 46 yards to GB 36, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 11-T.Davis to GB 38 for 2 yards (16-F.Martino, 32-J.Rodgers).