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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 18

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(:17) 7-P.Murray 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +4.49 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.89 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.15 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model