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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 17 at the 58

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(7:03) 9-B.Anger punts 52 yards to GB 6, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.06 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 58, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model