4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 14 at the 50

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(11:07) 9-B.Anger punts 31 yards to GB 19, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.50 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 50, worth -3.03 EP
KICK -1.89 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model