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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 5

Green Bay Packers 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

What Actually Happened

(2:03) 2-M.Crosby 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-J.Vogel.

The Three Options

GO +3.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.46 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 5, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.53 EP