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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 58

Green Bay Packers 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(14:08) 8-J.Vogel punts 32 yards to TB 26, Center-61-B.Goode, downed by GB-25-M.Evans.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.83 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 58, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model