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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
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Detroit Lions

HC Jim Caldwell
Thursday 2017-11-23 · 12:30 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread -2.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

MIN
50.6%
DET
49.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIN defense: -0.157 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • MIN offense: +0.020 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • DET offense: -0.019 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 22
–
DET 21
Projected margin: MIN by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

MIN

Mike Remmers T Questionable Concussion
Brian Robison DE Questionable Back
Andrew Sendejo S Questionable Groin

DET

Jamal Agnew CB Out Knee
Dwayne Washington RB Out Hip
Jalen Reeves-Maybin LB Questionable Ankle
Ezekiel Ansah DE Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 30
–
DET 23

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:34 TD MIN (5:34) 7-C.Keenum pass short left to 82-K.Rudolph for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – DET 0
  • Q1 04:01 TD MIN (4:01) (Shotgun) 7-C.Keenum left end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 12 – DET 0
  • Q2 10:19 FG DET (10:19) 5-M.Prater 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. MIN 13 – DET 3
  • Q2 00:43 TD MIN (:43) (Shotgun) 7-C.Keenum pass deep right to 82-K.Rudolph for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN [35-M.Killebrew]. MIN 19 – DET 3
  • Q2 00:15 TD DET (:15) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 11-M.Jones for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. MIN 20 – DET 9
  • Q3 12:58 TD MIN (12:58) 25-L.Murray up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 26 – DET 10
  • Q3 07:12 FG DET (7:12) 5-M.Prater 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. MIN 27 – DET 13
  • Q3 01:09 FG DET (1:09) 5-M.Prater 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. MIN 27 – DET 16
  • Q4 14:24 TD DET (14:24) (No Huddle) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 11-M.Jones for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-T.Johnson]. DET-9-M.Stafford was injured during the play. DET-21-A.Abdullah was injured during the play. Penalty on MIN, Defensive 12 On-field, declined. MIN 27 – DET 22
  • Q4 03:47 FG MIN (3:47) 2-K.Forbath 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley. MIN 30 – DET 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 6 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (12:37) 6-S.Martin punts 43 yards to MIN 15, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels. PENALTY on DET-44-J.Reeves-Maybin, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 15.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:32) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to MIN 28, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 6 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (:57) 4-R.Quigley punts 51 yards to DET 17, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 13-T.Jones.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 10 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%

    (10:19) 5-M.Prater 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 18 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 68%

    (3:11) 2-K.Forbath 53 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-J.Ledbetter), Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 10 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (2:08) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to MIN 16, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 26 for 10 yards (35-M.Killebrew).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 10 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%

    (7:12) 5-M.Prater 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 15 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (5:18) 4-R.Quigley punts 44 yards to DET 25, Center-47-K.McDermott. 15-G.Tate to MIN 42 for 33 yards (42-B.Gedeon). PENALTY on DET-35-M.Killebrew, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DET 38.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 7 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 74%

    (1:09) 5-M.Prater 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 10 at the 37
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 63%

    (8:35) 4-R.Quigley punts 28 yards to DET 9, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 13-T.Jones.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (6:30) 6-S.Martin punts 49 yards to MIN 33, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 37 for 4 yards (54-S.Longa).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 8 at the 18 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 92%

    (3:47) 2-K.Forbath 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 7 at the 72 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 38%

    (3:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 11-M.Jones INTERCEPTED by 29-X.Rhodes at DET 37. 29-X.Rhodes to DET 16 for 21 yards (85-E.Ebron).