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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 58

Detroit Lions 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(12:37) 6-S.Martin punts 43 yards to MIN 15, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels. PENALTY on DET-44-J.Reeves-Maybin, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 15.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +3.21 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 58, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 18, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model