Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 15 at the 69

Minnesota Vikings 27 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(5:18) 4-R.Quigley punts 44 yards to DET 25, Center-47-K.McDermott. 15-G.Tate to MIN 42 for 33 yards (42-B.Gedeon). PENALTY on DET-35-M.Killebrew, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DET 38.

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.49 EP
72% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 69, worth -3.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model