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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 18 at the 35

Minnesota Vikings 13 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(3:11) 2-K.Forbath 53 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-J.Ledbetter), Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.58 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 35, worth -1.79 EP
KICK +0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 45, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model