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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 32

Detroit Lions 13 – Minnesota Vikings 27

What Actually Happened

(1:09) 5-M.Prater 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.43 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 32, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 42, worth -1.66 EP
PUNT +0.51 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model