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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 75

Detroit Lions 0 – Minnesota Vikings 13

What Actually Happened

(2:32) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to MIN 28, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.98 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 75, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 32, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model