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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

7-2 HC Mike Tomlin
@
IND Home

Indianapolis Colts

3-7 HC Chuck Pagano
Sunday 2017-11-12 · 13:00 ET Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -10.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

PIT
61.2%
IND
38.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • IND defense: +0.070 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Jacoby Brissett (IND): -0.114 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • PIT on 7 more days rest than IND
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • PIT offense: +0.010 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

PIT 24 17–31
–
IND 18 11–25
Projected margin: PIT by 6 Projected total: 42

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 10

PIT

James Harrison LB Out Back

IND

Kamar Aiken WR Out Hamstring
John Simon LB Out Neck
T.Y. Hilton WR Questionable Groin
Quincy Wilson CB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 20
–
IND 17

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 15:00 TD IND (15:00) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left to 10-D.Moncrief for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 0 – IND 6
  • Q2 05:56 FG IND (5:56) 4-A.Vinatieri 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. PIT 0 – IND 10
  • Q2 00:35 FG PIT (:35) 9-C.Boswell 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 3 – IND 10
  • Q3 12:58 TD IND (12:58) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 80-C.Rogers for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 3 – IND 16
  • Q3 07:51 TD PIT (7:51) (Run formation) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 9 – IND 17
  • Q4 12:01 TD PIT (12:01) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 89-V.McDonald for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 15 – IND 17
  • Q4 00:04 FG PIT (:04) 9-C.Boswell 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 20 – IND 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 2 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (12:11) 2-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to PIT 24, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 PIT 4th & 4 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (10:00) 4-J.Berry punts 55 yards to IND 15, Center-57-K.Canaday. 80-C.Rogers ran ob at IND 32 for 17 yards.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 IND 4th & 12 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (6:35) 2-R.Sanchez punts 37 yards to PIT 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds. PENALTY on PIT-21-J.Haden, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 20.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 PIT 4th & 6 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 61%

    (13:12) 4-J.Berry punts 31 yards to IND 7, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-31-M.Hilton.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 IND 4th & 8 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 78%

    (5:56) 4-A.Vinatieri 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 PIT 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (4:25) 4-J.Berry punts 56 yards to IND 25, Center-57-K.Canaday. 80-C.Rogers to IND 21 for -4 yards (28-S.Davis).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 PIT 4th & 8 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 88%

    (:35) 9-C.Boswell 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 IND 4th & 2 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (4:53) 2-R.Sanchez punts 59 yards to PIT 1, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-28-C.Milton.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 PIT 4th & 5 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (2:47) 4-J.Berry punts 58 yards to IND 16, Center-57-K.Canaday. 80-C.Rogers to IND 28 for 12 yards (54-L.Fort; 56-A.Chickillo). PENALTY on IND-32-T.Green, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at IND 16.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 IND 4th & 7 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:16) 2-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to PIT 40, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PIT 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 45%

    (14:23) 4-J.Berry punts 44 yards to IND 11, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PIT 4th & 6 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 92%

    (6:21) 9-C.Boswell 37 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 IND 4th & 8 at the 61 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:28) 2-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to PIT 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-39-J.Ferguson.

    See the full breakdown →